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  Mentions légales
  February 2007    
121  
     

It is the number of yens in one dollar, on February 14, 2007. This figure corresponds roughly to the levelling out of prices in Japan and in the United States. But, as Japan achieves a surplus on current balance (3.7% of GDP), the US meet a deficit of 6.6% of GDP in 2006. So, the yen should be much more stronger than it is currently, and some experts estimate the equilibrium exchange rate at 80 yens for one dollar. With an interest rate at 0.25%, the Bank of Japan encourages speculation consisting in borrowing yens to buy dollars or euros. That is what makes the current yen’s weakness. At the Essen meeting, on February 9, 2007, G7 Finance ministers discussed this issue, which in addition prevents China to loosen state control of its exchange rate and let its currency appreciate. But, since there is almost no inflation in Japan, it is difficult to convince the Bank of Japan to tighten its monetary policy in order for the yen to appreciate. Actually, the G7 final statement doesn’t even mention Japan specifically.

   
     
World Consistent Equilibrium Exchange Rates, Document de travail du CEPII, n° 2006-20