WTO welcomed on January 11, 2007 its 150th member : Vietnam. The failure of Doha cycle hasn’t weakened the Vietnamese determination to complete bilateral negotiations started twelve years ago. The Vietnam accession, reducing barriers to trade, will increase its integration to the world market. It will also shelter Vietnam from possible commercial discrimination. The membership reinforce too positive signals towards foreign countries, as Direct Investment into Vietnam intensify: 2 billion dollars in 2005, according to UNCTAD, i.e. close to 11% of total investment. FDI stimulate Vietnamese exports, particularly in textiles and electronics, and contribute to the vitality of the economy. Growth was more than 8% in 2005 and 2006, and makes Vietnam the champion of economic dynamism in South-East Asia.
Nevertheless, major challenges are still to be met. National companies created by the communist authorities have to adapt to foreign competition. Agriculture, which counts for 20% of GDP and provides income to 2/3 of the population (84 million), might suffer from a reduction in domestic support, on which Vietnam agreed during negotiations.
In the framework of a prospective study about the consequences of Vietnam accession to the WTO, initiated by French and Vietnamese economic institutions, the CEPII starts an evaluation of the impact of the Vietnamese commitments in 2007, using the MIRAGE model.
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